GOODYEAR, Ariz. — What if a guy with five top-six American League MVP finishes in the past six seasons has yet to author his signature season? What if a guy guaranteed to play for Cleveland for another six years still has his most prolific seasons ahead of him? What if a guy with a microscopic number of deficiencies in his game is positioned to piece everything together in 2023?
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Is it possible that everything is aligned for the 2023 season to be José Ramírez’s best yet, for him to capture his first MVP honor after so many near misses? Shohei Ohtani and others might have something to say about award season, but Ramírez could be in store for a career year.
It starts with this: He isn’t spending his spring stressing about whether he’ll be a Guardian or a Padre or a Blue Jay. He has the security of a long-term extension, a deal that was in peril until the final minute of spring training last year, when he forced the issue and willed a seven-year pact into existence.
“It’s way different to just be able to focus and concentrate on the field,” Ramírez said, through team interpreter Agustin Rivero. “It’s completely different this year.”
Last season, José Ramírez led the league in doubles and had a career-high 126 RBIs. This year could be even better. (Ron Schwane / Associated Press)
Two functioning hands
Ramírez sat out two games in Los Angeles in mid-June as he and the club determined whether he’d undergo surgery to repair a torn ligament in his right hand or if he could play through the pain. His preference was to stay in the lineup, rather than be sidelined for up to eight weeks.
Ramírez before those two days off: .305/.397/.642 slash line.
Ramírez after those two days off: .264/.329/.437 slash line.
He acknowledged “sometimes you want to do things and you’re not able to, so your game gets a little bit limited. It was very difficult.” He said it affected “every aspect” of his game, not just the noticeable way it sapped his power, and that it required extra treatment, care and time to manage the pain each day.
He’s healthy now, though, and he opted to sit out the World Baseball Classic just to give himself a customary runway to the start of the season now that he’s recovered.
Shift limitations
Ramírez’s preferences at the plate are no secret.
“I like to play to my strengths and pull the ball,” he said. “I know I’m a pull hitter.”
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Opposing teams know it, too, which is why Ramírez faced a shift in 93.9 percent of his plate appearances as a left-handed hitter, the fifth-highest rate in the majors. Now, teams are required to place two infielders on each side of second base, with all four fielders’ cleats planted in the dirt.
“I hope and I think it’s going to benefit me, but we’ll have to see how that works out.”
Ah, but what if teams stick one of their outfielders into short-right field to discourage Ramírez from pulling the ball? Well, we’ve seen Ramírez face that sort of configuration for years — just, with three outfielders, not two. So, it wouldn’t change much, other than Ramírez capitalizing on the gap in the outfield when he deems it appropriate. Victor Rodriguez, Cleveland’s assistant hitting coach, figures if Ramírez encounters that kind of alignment, he’ll tend to stick to his strengths.
“José will not force it to hit a single to left field when he can get a pitch and drive it,” Rodriguez said. “He will not go for that unless it’s a situation in which he needs to get on base. He might go for it. But it’s forcing him to do something uncomfortable, for him to go the other way when he’s a pull hitter.
“If you change your swing, you’re not going to be in a good position to do anything. José is a pull hitter. When he hits the ball when the ball gets deep (on him), it goes (to the opposite field). But you don’t want José to be thinking (opposite field) and then he gets a pitch middle/middle-in and he’s not in a good position. So I always tell him: ‘Stay who you are. Don’t change because they’re playing over there.’”
Lineup protection
I asked manager Terry Francona if we make too much of lineup protection. How much of a difference does it really make if there’s a daunting slugger hitting behind you? He offered that the team desperately cycled through cleanup hitters last season, trying to find someone who could serve as a threat hitting behind Ramírez.
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Starts in the No. 4 spot:
Josh Naylor: 72
Owen Miller: 34
Franmil Reyes: 29
Oscar Gonzalez: 24
Andrés Giménez: 2
Amed Rosario: 1
To recap the four most common No. 4 hitters:
• A guy who was ineffective against lefties (.512 OPS), the opposite of protection.
• A guy who was dumped over the winter for a player to be named, just to clear space on the 40-man roster.
• A guy who was designated for assignment midseason and had to settle for a minor-league deal this spring.
• A guy who wasn’t even on the 40-man roster when last season began.
Enter Josh Bell.
“I told Josh Bell,” Rodriguez said, “‘Just be yourself. Your presence here is going to help a lot, especially José Ramírez.’”
It helps that Bell is a switch-hitter, without a profound contrast in his splits. He figures to hit fourth against both lefties and righties. The Guardians love his command of the strike zone; for a guy with plenty of power, he doesn’t strike out an exorbitant amount, and he draws a ton of walks.
The other elements
It’s easy to marvel at Ramírez’s annual slash line or his home run and doubles totals, but his well-rounded skill set is what makes him so valuable. He consistently posts one of the league’s best strikeout rates, which is even more impressive given his power. He rarely swings-and-misses, even though pitchers know they shouldn’t offer him anything he can attack.
Ramírez’s annual whiff rate:
2015: 96th percentile
2016: 95th percentile
2017: 95th percentile
2018: 95th percentile
2019: 95th percentile
2020: 91st percentile
2021: 94th percentile
2022: 94th percentile
He essentially blends the plate discipline of Steven Kwan or Luis Arraez and the home run-hitting ability of Mookie Betts or Manny Machado. With his ability to resist pitches out of the zone, and with more opportunities to yank pitches through the hole on the right side, Ramírez could reach new heights at the plate.
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He also, despite pedestrian speed, ranks near the top of FanGraphs’ base running metric on a yearly basis. He has ranked in the top 10 in the league in five of the past seven years, including a first-place finish in 2018, when the difference between him and second place equaled the difference between second and 12th. He’s a master at capitalizing on mistakes and seizing an extra base when the average hitter (or viewer) wouldn’t even consider it. And now the bases are larger, affording him more chances to lean on his intelligence and aggressiveness.
There’s also his glove: Ramírez has ranked in at least the 85th percentile in Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric in five of the past six seasons.
All of these elements help to explain how, since 2016, only Mike Trout and Betts have amassed a higher fWAR total than Ramírez. Those two have combined for four MVP awards (and six second-place finishes). So, is this the year Ramírez finally wins that elusive MVP? He took the modest route.
“I would love to, definitely,” he said, “but there are many good players out there. The good thing is, I get a chance to compete.”
(Top photo: Rick Scuteri / USA Today)
Zack Meisel is a senior writer for The Athletic covering the Cleveland Guardians and Major League Baseball. Zack was named the 2021 Ohio Sportswriter of the Year by the National Sports Media Association and won first place for best sports coverage from the Society of Professional Journalists. He has been on the beat since 2011 and is the author of four books, including "Cleveland Rocked," the tale of the 1995 team. Follow Zack on Twitter @ZackMeisel
